What Exactly is Peak Oil?

 

PHOTO: Paul M. Walsh/AP/SHUTTERSTOCK

I could go on and on about acceptance for probably weeks if not months, but today's article isn't about acceptance. Today's article is about energy and resource decline, one of the symptom predicaments of ecological overshoot and what is commonly referred to as Peak Oil. I have mentioned both energy and resource decline and peak oil many, many times in this blog but have never written an article specifically to address exactly what it is. I came across a publication from Stuart McMillen that makes the topic of Peak Oil easy to understand since it is in comic form. This provides a better explanation than a long-winded blog post because it equates peak oil with something fun - a roller coaster! 

Maybe I should try more analogies that include fun things to describe and/or explain overshoot. The roller coaster actually isn't too bad a description. My office manager calls overshoot by the name trebuchet. She described the action or motion of the sling as that of overshoot, taking the name quite literally. She also uses the term derogatorily when I bring up the subject of overshoot, saying, "We're not going to talk about trebuchets..." From my perspective, there is absolutely nothing wrong with discussing overshoot or any of its symptom predicaments such as peak oil or climate change. In fact, I robustly encourage discussion of the predicaments we face. How else is the general public supposed to understand what is actually happening? Attempting to avoid discussing it won't make it go away or reduce the consequences, so there is absolutely no benefit in not talking about it. I'm rather passionate regarding talking about it, precisely because I think the conversations are very worth having and because I'd like more people to understand the situation more completely. 

On a more serious note, a member of the group I run brought up a very valid concern about Stuart McMillen's comic. He writes, quote: 

"There's confusion about the very real science of climate and climate chaos, and the way the world's elites are trying to use climate chaos to impose an agenda of further control and of promoting useless technologies like [non-renewable] "renewables" which do nothing about the crisis but enrich them [the elites] further. I think people who discuss the climate crisis need to be more open about this dichotomy."

I agree that there is some confusion in how the comic portrays the situation, because it isn't very easy for a person who isn't already familiar with overshoot and its symptom predicaments to understand why technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, power inverters, AI, EVs, and on and on ad nauseum cannot reduce or solve overshoot or any of its symptom predicaments. In order to fully appreciate this fact, one must first comprehend the whole point of this blog - the difference between a problem and a predicament and how technology and its use plays the central part in creating overshoot to begin with. Once one understands that technology use is precisely what is creating overshoot and that overshoot is what is causing all the symptom predicaments, it becomes much easier to realize that more technology (or more complex technology) can only worsen all the predicaments, not improve them. For the folks who go on about improving efficiency, there is the issue of Jevons Paradox. Of course, culturally indoctrinated belief systems are difficult to replace with actual facts. It's even worse when one realizes that some belief systems have their own built-in cloaking systems. Of course, when one isn't aware of these psychological and/or physical systems and/or limits and/or how they work, it is easy to become overly optimistic. I consistently see this regularly with lots of different people who do not appear to realize what they are actually up against who want to more or less "wish" things into existence, and this is what is known as hopium. All of these systems also have even more complexity added in with social systems, political systems, financial and economic systems, religious systems, and more that make attempting to change the way we think very difficult to achieve. Ultimately, it is our way of thinking and our behavior of using technology that is required to be changed. 

Humans naturally find changing their behavior difficult and generally only do so when forced to recognize that behavior change is necessary for one reason or another (or when required by circumstance), usually when their behavior is shown (and seen by the person himself or herself) to be detrimental to themselves or others. This explains why so many different appeals for scientific or technological or governmental or some other [magical thinking] "solution(s)" get(s) placed in front of making personal and/or societal change. When it comes to Peak Oil, another issue brings a stark truth into the mix - the Land Export Model as highlighted in this article, quote:

"For evidence of this, we can see that this article about Mexico stopping the exporting of oil in 2023 may not necessarily cause any discomfort until one looks at the Export Land Model, work done by Dallas geologist Jeffrey Brown that some may remember from The Oil Drum. 

Basically, this is the explanation, quote: 

"It starts with the observation that most oil exporting nations (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia, etc.) have citizens who currently use less oil and oil derivatives per head than northern European nations, but that their oil use per head is steadily increasing. In the scenario that an oil producing nation starts to experience a decline in their oil production (due to oil-field depletion and only an ever-decreasing number of more difficult-to-access fields being discovered), the hypothesis is that its government will experience ineluctable pressure to ensure enough oil is available for constantly increasing domestic consumption, even if this requires reducing oil exports. (Implicit in this is an assumption that the citizens will prefer the actual oil products to the second-order advantages they would get from continuing to export the same oil volume at presumably rising oil prices.) For such a country, its oil export volume will decline faster than its oil production declines." "

Much more is included in my article about the upcoming situation, some of which is now occurring although one must be able to spot the truth through veiled claims. Make no mistake, the ongoing geopolitical instability (Ukraine and Gaza are two specific flashpoint regions where this is playing out right now) which is worsening little by little as time moves forward is caused by energy and resource decline.

Going back to the original topic, it is vitally important to understand the part of Stuart's comic about how energetically powerful oil is in comparison to everything else, which is why I wrote this article. Once one comprehends that literally every other type of energy is derived from fossil hydrocarbon energy, and that all our roads are derived from it whether they are gravel, concrete, or asphalt, it becomes quite clear that there is no substitute for oil and no "drop in" type of replacement. One of my articles about acceptance had a key point about what we will be returning to for energy. Basically, it will be muscle power from us and animals, heating and cooking from wood and charcoal, and solar power from items like mechanical windmills, water wheels, and food, no differently than it was for most all of our entire existence as a species minus the last 10-12 thousand years. 

I have also dispensed with the idea of electrification, for multiple reasons. The biggest reason is the simple fact that the system of electricity generation regardless of how it is generated is unsustainable. Even though those two articles give more reasons than are necessary to point to all the various reasons electricity won't be powering our societies long into the future, one of the basic premises is that civilization itself is unsustainable, meaning that everything supported by civilization (such as human-built infrastructure) is likewise unsustainable. This means it doesn't matter how civilization is powered, it will remain unsustainable. Considering that we are in civilizational collapse already and this is forecast to be completed by 2050, the only way anyone can buy into the various narratives generated by society (such as "net zero" or "electrification" or the "4th industrial revolution" - all of which are hilariously ridiculous fantasies, myths, and fairy tales) is through denial of reality. The irony of "net zero by 2050" isn't lost on me.

The reason I wrote the series of acceptance posts (here and here and here and here and here) is precisely because it was evident to me that a large portion of society is still busy bargaining to maintain civilization, which can't be maintained. The laws that nature operates on (biology, physics, chemistry, thermodynamics, etc.) aren't going to change just because we don't like them. So, we will be required to come back to reality. This is beginning to happen now, as we begin the long decline. Some things like higher prices and inflation will happen due to the increased cost of energy, which inevitably increases the cost of everything else, and these will be evident early on. Other effects of having reached the peak of oil such as deferred maintenance on vital infrastructure may not be as visible until something breaks or falls down (bridges, buildings, tunnels, electrical infrastructure, roads, and water and sewer systems either already have become serious issues in some areas or will soon be obvious signs of the decline). For more info, see collapse.

For more info on peak oil and/or energy and resource decline in this blog, enter one or the other into the search bar at the top of this page by clicking on the magnifying glass, typing a word or words, and then hit the "enter" key.

Next week I will delve into some topics I've covered in the past and how these have all worsened. Even my regular readers might be somewhat unsettled although most will likely be unsurprised. I strongly dislike being right on these issues, as it confirms everything I have pointed out in this blog - all things I don't want to be right about. Live Now!