The Biggest Issue is NOT Climate Change; it is OVERSHOOT

 

Beartree Lake at Beartree Recreation Area

Denial of reality is something I predicted would get considerably worse as time moves forward due to the cognitive dissonance caused by collapse. Few people will enjoy the actuality of coming conditions and those who stand to profit from what are claimed as "solutions" will hawk all sorts of ideas in an effort to cash in on people's ignorance. I'm sure that you have seen many different claims of "the energy transition" peppered with claims of "renewable" energy replacing coal-fired electrical generation. Of course, if one consults charts and/or graphs of energy, one can clearly see that this is complete nonsense:

 

The hype and nonsense continue unabated. As I mentioned last time, optimism bias causes us to think that we can do things which in reality we cannot. Here's another perfect example of more nonsense. Here's even more nonsense. As was pointed out in Denial of Reality, climate change isn't going to be stopped or reversed on human timescales. Most people think that all we have to do is reduce emissions, not realizing that emissions is another symptom predicament of ecological overshoot, meaning that what must be reduced if climate change is to be reduced is overshoot, not emissions. This is much more difficult than simply reducing emissions, because it requires a reduction of technology use. John Peach explains using calculations from Tom Murphy and Tim Garrett and the Stefan-Boltzmann Law. 

Once one understands the concepts in Tim Garrett's, Tom Murphy's, and John Peach's work, one can clearly see that climate change isn't the big predicament most people make it out to be, OVERSHOOT is. Climate change, emissions, pollution loading, energy and resource decline, biodiversity loss, extinction, etc. are all SYMPTOMS of overshoot. This means that reducing (or attempting to eliminate) emissions alone will NOT reduce climate change because it is being caused by overshoot from technology use. Thus, the hype in my first paragraph above about "renewable" energy replacing coal-fired energy will not help to solve climate change. Replacing coal-fired energy is an attempt to continue civilization, so in the end, it is nothing more than bargaining to maintain civilization.

These facts are not going to change regardless of what type of technology is used or how complex it is. In effect, our use of technology is the entire predicament in a nutshell. Now, this does not mean that all we have to do is stop using technology. Some technologies would be difficult if not impossible to stop using. Most of our lives today revolve around one type of technology or another. But without the fossil fuel platform, modernity cannot be continued. Electrification will not solve it, so that isn't an answer or solution. Hydrogen will not solve it. None of the mainstream ideas (such as AI) will solve it. Using reductionist thinking will not solve it. NOTHING will solve it because what we face is a predicament, not a problem. Acceptance of that fact is required before moving forward, because anything less than that will guarantee coming up with ideas which will only worsen the outcome rather than improve it. 

Once one realizes all of this, the next idea which must be mastered is that 8 billion or more people cannot survive on this planet for long in civilization without damaging the underlying ecosystem which provides our habitat. Resilience and sustainability are key features which any system of living must provide; civilization and city living is impossible in such a scenario. Comprehending that only a small segment of the current population will make it out of this century, if any of the population, is important. Much of that depends upon an intact ecosystem, which is definitely not guaranteed. The amount of damage that will be done by the 8 billion people currently here as collapse deepens probably means a dystopian world, and even that is a very big IF. Given today's trajectories, the most likely outcome is extinction for most species, including us. 

Collapse is another consequence of overshoot; it is yet another symptom predicament. Many people often forget the social aspects of overshoot and blame them on other things, yet increasing cost of living, decline of happiness, mass shootings, increasing polarization, increasing disease rates, addiction, and many other issues can be directly tied to overshoot and/or the system of civilization which ultimately causes overshoot and collapse. 

I mentioned Tom Murphy above, and one of his articles comes in handy once again to point out precisely just how ludicrous some of our assumptions about civilization (or modernity as he calls it) actually are. I remain somewhat surprised so many people still believe in free will and the illusion of control. Tom dispenses with all that nonsense quickly in the first paragraph by pointing out the reality that Santa Claus is a part of a set of fairy tales. His article pairs nicely with The Cycle of Life, pointing out that just because we lack free will (or other inconvenient truths) doesn't mean that there is no point to life. Likewise, just because those of us who understand the truth about what is and what isn't sustainable doesn't mean that we have "given up" on anything but unsustainable or untenable pursuits. The real wisdom in Tom's article comes in the last two paragraphs, quote: 

"If modernity is not to last very long, what’s the point in pretending that it will? What’s the point in holding onto a worldview predicated on modernity’s survival? What’s the point of our current choices, jobs, ways of living? To what end do we pursue the things we presently do?

Just because a lot of the things we do today will turn out to be pointless does not mean there’s no point to anything! What a huge and unwarranted leap that is! In the context of a completely different lifestyle as subordinate partners among a cast of many in the community of life, one might find innumerable sources of meaning. Living, loving, caring, helping, singing, laughing, learning, respecting, offering gratitude, appreciating beauty, jabbering, teasing, playing, sharing—for instance—are all part of being human and of being one form of life among many others on this planet: lots of room to find meaning and “points” that validate life. If the meaning in your life is contingent on modernity, then maybe you’ve come to the wrong shop, and ought to look for new forms of meaning that are built to last."



The Honest Sorcerer brings even more evidence that industrial civilization has begun "the long emergency" (Kunstler) or "the long descent" (Greer) or "the great simplification" (Hagens). He points out that almost everything we do depends upon finite fossil hydrocarbons and that once we no longer have massive surplus energy to do those things at the same time we take care of basic necessities like food, water, clothing, shelter, and waste disposal, essential necessities will take precedence and discretionary activities such as vacation travel, professional sports teams, and the entertainment industry will come to an end. While I don't share his optimism at the end of the article (the ecological basis of our existence is being wiped out already by our activities; only if a mass die-off began right now and began reducing population levels in industrialized nations sharply and at a sustained rate is there much of a chance of regeneration), he provides much to think about. I understand that some people feel a "happy ending" is required but I don't think nature cares whether we are happy or not. If it did, perhaps Santa Claus would have been provided to us instead of roaches. Then again, roaches will probably survive us.

Here is the latest set of pictures in the Live Now saga. Enjoy!