A Predicament With an Outcome

Ludington Pumped Hydro Project with Lake Michigan in background

Last week, I showed geological evidence of how predicaments are very different from problems. I have had many people argue with me how different predicaments such as ecological overshoot and climate change are not really predicaments but are problems and they provide their so-called evidence by showing how we "solved" the ozone hole by outlawing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), cleaning up rivers, canals, and lakes in the 1970s, and "solving" all sorts of other issues. Well, those issues may have been deemed solved, but the facts surrounding each issue demonstrates that none of them have actually been solved. The ozone hole is still there, pollution in rivers, canals, and lakes has improved in some older pollutants but worsened in newer pollutants, and all other issues have likewise worsened as a result of the worsening of overshoot. In other words, people making these claims are overshoot blind. Claiming that a predicament is a problem is really just denial of reality.

I came across a really great article by Caitlin Johnstone that points out the reality extremely well. We are all looking for truth, in one way or another, whether we know it or not. In fact, my articles about false beliefs and denial (Part One and Part Two) cover much of the same ground in a different manner. It was this paragraph below that caught my attention, quote:

"We will never have a healthy world until we are capable of becoming a truth-driven species. A species driven not by propaganda and the fraudulent psychological delusions of fear, greed, hatred and self-interest, but by truth and sincerity. I am firmly convinced that we are capable of becoming such a species."

Hmmm, there is that famous we™ again. Something that "we" lack agency for is once again stated as something that is attainable. This denial of reality continues to be spewed by so many, in this case not noticing that what she just said above this paragraph specifically points out why her claim here is illogical. All the characteristics she pointed out about civilization, the paradigm all of us who can read this are embedded within, show many reasons why it is unsustainable. Initially, civilization was unsustainable from the start due to technology use - specifically agriculture. She is actually accurate - IF we gave up our behavior of technology use. But that's what we lack agency for, since dissipative structures don't go backwards (just one of many reasons we lack agency). Of course, we will eventually give up technology use anyway once it is forced upon us by energy and resource decline (a symptom predicament of overshoot), as pointed out in this recent article by The Honest Scorcerer. 

Lacking agency to give up civilization collectively, and civilization being the wetiko-inspired disease that society suffers from, making us all miserable in one way or another, one can easily see that becoming a truth-driven species isn't exactly forthcoming. So, technology use, which is precisely what drives the illusion that we are somehow "separate" from nature (another false belief from the start) provides one set of delusions she mentions. The second reason becoming a truth-driven species isn't in our future is because of our infamous denial of reality (if you missed the link above, here it is again). A species so imbued with so many psychological mechanisms to deny reality isn't likely to become a purveyor of truth. Once again, someone finds or claims what they think is a way out, and as usual it turns out to be non-acceptance of what is a predicament with an outcome, not a problem with a solution.

Nate Hagens once again rolls out the hopium in his Frankly #77. I didn't bother to watch it myself as many people came out against it before I even had the chance; being very familiar with the angle he often presents (he often ignores inconvenient truths and attempts to provide reassuring themes instead). Several people claimed he is a liar - that he is aware of the facts but continues selling snake oil because it gains more clicks. "Clickbait artist TikTokker" was the name one person used to describe him. I don't think he is lying, but he's exaggerating optimistic ideas that won't pan out in reality and downplaying less optimistic ideas that actually have a much larger probability than he is letting on. His discussion of humans being on the planet in thousands of years just doesn't agree with the facts and trajectory we are on as they currently stand. That last article (and video) was from over 3 years ago, but a newer video version by a different scientist, Bill McGuire, tells the same story. But more importantly, he's in denial of the inertia of the systems we have already put in motion; namely, climate change, pollution loading, disease, energy and resource decline, cryosphere loss, biodiversity loss, and extinction. In actuality, we don't need to do anything more for those symptom predicaments of ecological overshoot to overpower us and wipe out habitat for humans. Pro-social behavior is a nice and noble thought, but the tipping points of the system have already been breached. IF there was to be some sort of reciprocal, pro-social movement that would have any ability to "save" human society or community, it would have already needed to be in place by now. 

A more realistic angle is the one Tom Murphy provides here. Of course, a good percentage of it revolves around the political issues here in the U.S., but he also provides a rather poignant comprehension of the fact that politics, government, and the elections in general are still a subset of civilization and will never be able to "solve" any of the predicaments we face because their very existence (politics, government, and elections) can only continue the collapse trajectory we are already on. His last paragraph is the clincher, pointing out that hoping for something which simply cannot be is pretty much the definition of insanity, quote:

"Anyhow, I hope you might also find a more healthy mental state by questioning the degree to which your own political anxieties are rooted in unachievable fantasy. Life can be better without all the claptrap."

I continue to find many people who don't understand our lack of agency (which is exactly why I frequently point it out) or want to argue about it because of that lack of understanding. I think it is a very important part of comprehending the set of predicaments we face and precisely why acceptance is so necessary (for those who are interested in truth rather than fantasy). Non-acceptance of these facts doesn't change said facts nor does it help in any way. It's true that most people want easy answers on what to do; but when there aren't any (that are easy), then what? Do you want truth or are you looking for an illusion you can bear to live with? Some focus on individual agency and use that to equate that we have agency in general, but this doesn't pan out in reality. Just because I can choose to reduce my ecological footprint doesn't mean that I have agency over any other individual, nor does it give me agency over the rest of my species collectively. People will make their own decisions based on their own worldview, conditioning, genetics, and on and on based on the deterministic ways that people make decisions. Their decision can be predicted with uncanny accuracy, meaning that it is more or less predetermined. So, once again, in reality, we lack agency because those choices are unlikely to change until the person making those choices realizes that a different choice is absolutely necessary. Considering how few people actually comprehend overshoot and realize what is possible and what isn't, very few people will similarly make the correct choice. 

The failure of yet another COP (COP29) meeting to produce any substantial agreement is indicative of this lack of agency. The bottom line is that global unity is not possible, so we lack the agency required to actually reduce overshoot voluntarily. This means that this will play out according to the rules of nature and this is the predicament and the reality that we face (overshoot, collapse, and die-off). The only reason people want to argue about this is because they lack the evidence of how we arrived here in the first place. We "chose" technology use (in reality there was no choice in the matter) due to our pre-programmed biological imperative of the Maximum Power Principle, just like all species. But due to our opposable thumbs and our innovative intelligence, we are able to build items that would act as tools; as extensions of our own bodies, to grasp more power to accomplish tasks in an easier manner. Of course, the negative side effects of this have always been to leverage more energy and resource use than we could have ever managed on our own without such technologies. Another unfortunate consequence of this activity is a reduction or removal of negative feedbacks, creating the self-reinforcing positive feedback of population growth. So, technology use causes ecological overshoot and all the symptom predicaments that overshoot creates as part of its destruction. Overshoot always destroys habitat and carrying capacity as part of the bargain, to the point that some species end up causing their own extinction as a result.

Wetiko is used as both a rationalization and as a story we tell ourselves to culturally condition and indoctrinate society to maintain civilization even as it destroys itself as part of the overshoot caused by the technology use which supports civilization. Round and round it goes in a vicious circle over and over again in cycle after cycle. So far, most humans haven't dug into the root issues causing this cycle of overshoot, collapse, and die-off. Occasionally, civilizations die without much human die-off, as populations simply scattered and moved into new, pristine areas with much higher carrying capacity. Now, unfortunately, civilization is global, it is collapsing (and actually has been for quite some time, but as is usual for humans, we generally don't notice exponential trends until they are well advanced) and this particular cycle will complete itself by 2050. The collapse of industrial civilization means that a large amount of the infrastructure which is a daily part of our lives today will disappear forever. The energy which powers it and the resource supply which likewise came as a result of that same energy supply will no longer exist. Maintenance on that infrastructure will become impossible and it will begin to crumble. Our living arrangements will literally change in dramatic fashion; although much of this will happen prior to the final gasp at the end. Of course, a nuclear winter could wipe out a huge chunk of life on this planet before then - so we may not make it to that point. Basic civilization will continue for a while; possibly until the end of this century when agriculture will become much more difficult. A return to hunting and gathering looks to be inevitable around that timeframe if humans make it that far. 

Unfortunately, most of the species we depend upon are being wiped out faster and faster, and with their fertility moving along the same trajectory as ours, being curtailed by the same toxins causing loss of fertility through endocrine disruptors, it seems habitat for humans will likely be going the same route as the dinosaurs. 

I know, I know...surely there is some way to get out of this, you say. But this is where so many people get it wrong. This is yet another reason why I repeat myself so frequently. It is because these things NEED to be repeated. It is easy for folks to repeat strongly-held beliefs and ignore the facts. But the facts don't change. People are going to believe what they want to believe. If the facts don't agree with those beliefs then those beliefs are simply false beliefs (see the second paragraph above again for clarification). For those who want to believe in fairy tales, more power to them. But belief in illusions is precisely what leads people to a false sense of security which generally ends in disaster. 

There will be more on this topic next week, but for now I'm going to close with some pictures of Buzzard Rock Overlook at Grayson Highlands!