The Wisdom of Experience and Maturity

I think they need one more sign here...am I going to get in trouble?

Experience has taught me many things. For instance, after arriving at this park and walking through it, I noticed these signs which pointed to the fact that I had broken several rules. I didn't check in with the caretaker. I didn't pay anything despite not being a resident of Cooperstown. I happened to be walking Lexie when I realized I had violated these rules. Of course, my reason for being here was to take pictures and waste some time before heading to the campground just up the road a bit since it was still early (not yet noon). I didn't see anyone around, including a caretaker, so I figured those rules were probably unenforceable anyway. Still, rather than tempt fate, I got back in the van and Lexie and I headed to the campground. 

Do I have other bits of wisdom to impart? The difference between a predicament and a problem is a big one, but I already do that regularly. The fact that there are no solutions to the predicaments we face precisely because they are predicaments? Well, sure, and I do that one regularly too. But just as importantly if not more so is the fact that many of the typical ideas that people come up with in an effort to reduce overshoot or any of its symptom predicaments ignore the reason why most of them can't work the way they think they will because all the systems that surround them are still unsustainable. While I pointed this out in my article last time, there are more parts to all this that I didn't include in that article because it was getting pretty lengthy as it was. 

I would say the main reason I have been accused of "giving up" over the years is simply because many people have thought that there were "solutions" in the wings just waiting to be unleashed by political or cultural support once wider society caught on to the threats facing us. Of course, there are no such "solutions" waiting. 

I have also been called "Malthusian" and "nihilistic" at times. I'm pretty certain that this was caused by optimism bias where those people just denying that where we were heading was very dark. I'm not sure why they thought that way - the trajectories seemed more than clear enough to me. Maybe they didn't understand the exponential function? Either way, I wrote a series of articles asking those types of questions in Why Is Society Still Mired in Mainstream Thinking?, Why is Excessive Optimism Often Rewarded With a Reset of Reality?, and Why Do Today's Realities Escape Society?

I do think this article brings forth some of those realities. But wait - it gets worse. Then it gets even worse. I can go on with article after article after article after article. Those last two are about water security, something that is becoming a much more serious issue and will continue ramping up as a major concern as time moves forward, as this article points out. 

So, the wisdom I have to impart is that I trusted what the science was telling us. Studies have repeatedly told us that prior predictions have been accurate, if not comforting. I have also been following climate science for over 40 years now, most likely why none of this is surprising to me. I remember having that optimistic, idealistic, and hopeful outlook (back in the 1980s) that some still have today. I thought for sure that back when Carl Sagan and James Hansen reported to Congress about climate change that things were finally going to get done. Yeah, right. In reality, nothing got done and the same situation has repeated itself over and over for the last 4 decades. 

I also do not suffer from ignorance of oceanic thermal inertia, civilizational inertia, or the lag effect, which are very important abstract concepts to comprehend. Without this understanding, it can be rather difficult to comprehend why climate change is such an insidious and pernicious predicament. There's also another type of lag effect that those of us who have been following climate change for decades know all too well. Realizing that climate change is a symptom of ecological overshoot means that it is being caused by our behavior of technology use. So, attempting to use more technology or more complex technology can only make the existing predicament worse, not better. 

Speaking of technology use, I have brought forth the fact that advanced technology use will come to an end, most likely this century if we still survive into the 22nd century. One of the pillars of modernity, electricity, is unsustainable and always has been. Paul Mobbs explains the situation fairly thoroughly in this video about the situation. 

Once one sees that civilization is unsustainable, one begins to realize that everything surrounding us that has been created by us is slowly disappearing. This phenomenon is most pronounced in countries which developed first, such as the United States, The United Kingdom, countries in Europe, Australia, and Japan most notably. Zeroing in on climate change as one symptom predicament of overshoot that most people are familiar with; one popular cultural myth is that AI will be able to help develop a "solution" for climate change. The obvious mistake here, of course, is that climate change isn't a problem with an answer or solution, but a predicament with an outcome. But to go further requires a bit more knowledge of the systems surrounding us. 

The fact that all of our infrastructure is unsustainable due to how they originate, how they are powered, how they are maintained, and how they are decommissioned or rebuilt means that as long as they continue to be used, these systems will continue demanding energy and resources and continue increasing overshoot as a result. One must remember that emissions cannot and will not be reduced as long as overshoot continues increasing. So, the myth that AI can have any real effect on emissions is most likely nothing more than hype.

Another morsel of wisdom I would suggest for folks is to focus on what nature still exists around us rather than to focus on increasing technology use. More technology use can only steepen the ecological collapse in full swing already. A key quote in that article follows:

"The list of known threats to mussels is long. “Basically it’s humans,” said Bogan. In the U.S., mussel numbers started to decline with the advent of colonial agriculture, which dumped sediment into rivers and buried many mussel species. Mussel populations took a different sort of hit in the mid-1800s, when clothing manufacturers began to use the inside of mussel shells, called nacre, to make mother-of-pearl buttons. Freshwater mussels also produce pearls, and discoveries of the gems across the East, South, and Midwest — one pearl found in New Jersey in 1857 reportedly fetched $1,500, a princely sum at the time — sparked “pearl rushes” that decimated mussel populations.

In the 1980s, invasive mussel species such as quagga and zebra mussels, native to eastern Europe, began threatening mussels in the U.S. Those species are much more aggressive feeders, says Caryn Vaughn, a researcher at the University of Oklahoma. They have a much higher reproductive rate and can attach to the shells of native mussels, killing them outright. In Europe, invasive mussels were found to create conditions unfavorable to natives and push them out of their habitat.

Late last year, biologists discovered that a new invader from Asia, the golden mussel, had arrived at the port of Stockton, in California, likely introduced by ballast water from a ship traveling from an international port. Experts worry it could spread through North American waterways like other nonnatives — on the hulls of recreational boats, in bait buckets, bilge water, and through the movement of waterfowl. “If it invades areas where native mussel populations are already stressed from habitat degradation, pollution, and other stressors,” said Vaughn, “it will likely have impacts similar to zebra mussels, which means the natives would starve and their populations decline."

When I say to focus on nature, I mean to take care of nature in an effort to take care of ourselves. The species which surround us are what keep us alive. I don't recommend getting any false notions of "saving" nature. As is the case with my effort to Live Now, I certainly don't want to discourage anyone from following their passions - if you feel that attempting to "save" nature is the thing for you, then do it. For those like me who don't think that we have the agency to accomplish such a task, it is still within our power to do the things that are good to do simply because they are the right thing to do. I plant trees (please see NEW IMPORTANT UPDATE in that article!) not because I hope to help rein in emissions with them, but simply because I enjoy doing it. One time I went to a local nature preserve and helped pull garlic mustard (an invasive species), not because I think doing so will actually eradicate it, but because it was a fun, social activity to be involved in. I was a Cub Scout Den Leader that year, and even though I didn't have to participate, I volunteered to be there.

The point I am trying to make with all of this is that attempting to reinvent the system by attempting to make it sustainable or green or renewable or resilient or recyclable is the wrong way to look at it. The system is unsustainable and is irredeemable - it cannot be made sustainable, period. It can be walked away from; it can be abandoned. That is exactly what Justin McAffee is saying here too, quote:

"The article wrings its hands and pleads that we must "adapt our civilization" to survive climate change, as if the solution lies in retrofitting the very machine that's driving us off the cliff. It's the same logic of empire repackaged in green jargon—sustainable development, resilient infrastructure, climate-smart cities. But cities aren't just the victims of environmental collapse—they're the engines of it. Cities demand extraction, they require importation, they generate waste, and they enforce violence to secure their lifelines. This isn’t a glitch in the system—it is the system.

What the article fails to see—what most modern minds refuse to even imagine—is that the Mayan people didn’t disappear. They walked away. They left the collapsing city-states and returned to the forests, to the villages, to the sustainable, decentralized ways of life their ancestors had practiced for thousands of years. That isn’t failure. That’s wisdom.

If there’s a lesson here, it’s not to fortify our metropolises against the next big drought. It’s to abandon the false promise of civilization itself. It’s to recognize that the Mayan "collapse" was really a de-urbanization—a liberation from empire. They returned to what worked: smaller communities, local subsistence, interdependence with land rather than domination over it."

A member in the group I run reminded us that once upon a time there was somewhere one could walk away to. Now there is nowhere to walk to because we have run out of places to go to that are both habitable and empty. The crux is that many publications describe our options as a choice (false dichotomy, actually) between civilization and capitalism when in reality, capitalism is a subset of civilization, and since both are unsustainable, both will be going away. Again, not to discourage anyone from following what they are passionate about, but some things just won't be possible and that is what I want people to know about. Thinking about going into a National Forest and living off the land? Good luck with that. Here's a map showing what areas will be targeted for harvesting:

Click on the link above for full page viewing of the PDF. Now, combine that reality with this one. Those are just two symptom predicaments of overshoot (biodiversity decline and extreme weather events) - now add in all symptom predicaments. Anyone who has been paying attention to these types of studies can tell you the same things that I can and have been saying for the last decade now. For about 5 years, I kept most of my comments and analysis inside private groups. I made public blog posts in the Treasured Traditions blog throughout 2017, occasionally mentioning the scope of what was coming a few times. It wasn't until the COVID pandemic that I decided to start sharing some of my articles and studies I had been reading in a new blog (here). Initially just a way to share the files and the articles publicly, I had no idea it would turn into this!

This is being written in April, as I will be on my spring trip next month. As such, I am certain new developments will take place before this is published. If I happen to see anything that I think should be included in this article, I will add it. Overall, my intent with these articles is not to "wake people up." I assume that the people reading these articles are sufficiently awake already. My intent is to help foster acceptance of these predicaments rather than for folks to go off "half-cocked" thinking that they're going to find a place that is "climate safe" or that technology is going to save them or any of these other crazy ideas that are culturally woven into the public mind. Prepping has gotten a pretty bad rap because not enough of it is given to mentally preparing oneself for the actual realities that will unfold on the ground. Setting up a bug-out bag and having food and potable water preps all ready to go are good ideas, but completely insufficient. Focusing on relationships is a much better way to go, as lone wolves get picked off rather quickly. Justin McAffee has just outlined a new set of articles along these lines here and here and here.

I have been criticized in the past for pointing out how bad things are going to get but didn't provide any "solutions." Well, that's because in reality there are none. Learning how to prepare yourself properly isn't something you are going to do in a day, a week, a month, or even a year. This is going to be an ongoing learning experience from here on out, just like life itself. What works for me or others may not fit into your lifestyle. Different people will have different priorities. Nobody is going to be able to prepare for every possible scenario. I once asked a friend who has been into the prepping lifestyle for many years what he thought his chances of survival were. He told me that he and his wife would probably go fairly early on, which surprised me a bit. Then I started giving the overall situation more holistic thought rather than attempting to reduce each scenario into what might fit into my ability to visualize potential outcomes (reductionistic thinking). So even I once thought that things might turn out far more optimistically. This is what experience and maturity bring - wisdom. 

The Honest Sorcerer likewise mirrors all of this in this article about why "bug out" states are not a good idea to move into, quote: 

"Focusing on one aspect might lead you to believe that there is a solution — or at least an escape hatch conveniently handed down to you — but understanding at least a tiny fraction of the polycrisis unfolding in front of our eyes reveals that there is no salvation. We will have to muddle through, and find ways to cooperate with each other to survive, while accepting that there is absolutely no going back to our wholly unsustainable past. The great unraveling of this high tech civilization will arrive everywhere, but not according to a predictable plan and not from one day to the next. No one can tell where the safest place will be. In fact you are far better off at a place you already know and where you are known. If you move, there is no guarantee others will open their doors for you, or won’t look at you suspiciously once the turd hits the fan there. The best thing we can do at the moment is to educate ourselves and prepare to weather the storm when it arrives."

Keeping it simple is important. Don't overthink the situation (easier said than done). There are literally tons of prepping channels...I have pointed out quite a few different blogs and writers over the years. They know what they are doing and I would never be able to keep up on that front, which is why I focus on what I do. Anyway, now that I've brought all these points up, it's time to close and offer something more inspirational, as usual. 

Get ready for Chattooga Ridge Road and Wigington Overlook and Bad Creek Visitor Overlook!