Are We Running Out of Road?
Climbing this trail to the top of Whiteface Mountain was a blast!
If you have had a sinking feeling in the gut of your midsection this year, you aren't alone. The Honest Sorcerer explains in The End Of The Road that every time electricity became more expensive, the US economy got deeper and deeper in debt, quote:
None of my regular readers will be surprised, as I think most are well-versed in collapse and comprehend that this one will make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park. What is different this time around is that we aren't talking just a financial collapse, but an ecological one at the same time.
New tipping points are being breached all the time now, and the death of the oceans will be the consequence of the conditions we are creating now. The failure of upwelling in the Gulf of Panama is just the latest indication of looming trouble.
For those of you concerned about carbon emissions, Justin McAffee points out the truth about the EPA announcing plans to stop polluters from disclosing their GHG emissions, quote:
As if we need yet another study about microplastics and nanoplastics, this one is a bit more worrying. Earlier this year I posted other studies about microplastics entering the food chain through plant leaves and inhaling them when we breathe. More information about microplastics and other pollution loading can be found in this article.
Needless to say, I find Justin's comment above misleading - there is no "choice" here. There never was an option not to go extinct. One doesn't just flip a switch and reverse the process we are already in. I'm not sure where people get these ideas of reversing processes like this. Hyperobjects such as these types of systems are beyond the mental capacity of most humans to conceptualize, and we certainly have no control over them. Thinking that we can avoid collapse, or climate change, or extinction, or any of the other symptom predicaments of overshoot denies that
dissipative structures don't go backwards. It denies who and what we are as a species. It denies reality. I understand that these facts aren't pretty, but once one understands them, the idea of escape or avoidance given said facts relies on fantasy and magical thinking - hopium.
There are many who don't believe these inconvenient truths. But they are suffering from false beliefs because they have a deep-seated need to believe and cannot be convinced of the facts as a result. They cannot be helped or reasoned with. Still, we are not yet extinct, so what everyone can do today is to Live Now.
I totally understand, however, why so many people believe in salvation. I used to think that we could stop climate change myself - back in the day when I had no idea of all the other symptom predicaments of overshoot, and indeed, of ecological overshoot itself. I didn't yet understand that civilization itself is unsustainable and that very few people would be willing to give up civilization or technology use. Indeed, the last part of my article about civilization contains one of the most powerful messages from a friend, and I think it deserves to be reprinted here:
"When it comes to our understanding of the unfolding global crisis, each of us seems to fit somewhere along a continuum of awareness that can be roughly divided into five stages:
1. Dead asleep. At this stage there seem to be no fundamental problems, just some shortcomings in human organization, behavior, and morality that can be fixed with the proper attention to rule-making. People at this stage tend to live their lives happily, with occasional outbursts of annoyance around election times or the quarterly corporate earnings seasons.
2. Awareness of one fundamental problem. Whether it's climate change, overpopulation, peak oil, chemical pollution, oceanic over-fishing, biodiversity loss, corporatism, economic instability, or sociopolitical injustice, one problem seems to engage the attention completely. People at this stage tend to become ardent activists for their chosen cause. They tend to be very vocal about their personal issue, and blind to any others.
3. Awareness of many problems. As people let in more evidence from different domains, the awareness of complexity begins to grow. At this point a person worries about the prioritization of problems in terms of their immediacy and degree of impact. People at this stage may become reluctant to acknowledge new problems - for example, someone who is committed to fighting for social justice and against climate change may not recognize the problem of resource depletion. They may feel that the problem space is already complex enough, and the addition of any new concerns will only dilute the effort that needs to be focused on solving the "highest priority" problem.
4. Awareness of the interconnections between the many problems. The realization that a solution in one domain may worsen a problem in another marks the beginning of large-scale system-level thinking. It also marks the transition from thinking of the situation in terms of a set of problems to thinking of it in terms of a predicament. At this point the possibility that there may not be a solution begins to raise its head.
People who arrive at this stage tend to withdraw into tight circles of like-minded individuals in order to trade insights and deepen their understanding of what's going on. These circles are necessarily small, both because personal dialogue is essential for this depth of exploration, and because there just aren't very many people who have arrived at this level of understanding.
5. Awareness that the predicament encompasses all aspects of life. This includes everything we do, how we do it, our relationships with each other, as well as our treatment of the rest of the biosphere and the physical planet. With this realization, the floodgates open, and no problem is exempt from consideration or acceptance. The very concept of a "Solution" is seen through, and cast aside as a waste of effort.
For those who arrive at Stage 5 there is a real risk that depression will set in. After all, we've learned throughout our lives that our hope for tomorrow lies in our ability to solve problems today. When no amount of human cleverness appears able to solve our predicament, the possibility of hope can vanish like the light of a candle flame, to be replaced by the suffocating darkness of despair.
How people cope with despair is of course deeply personal, but it seems to me there are two general routes people take to reconcile themselves with the situation. These are not mutually exclusive, and most of us will operate out of some mix of the two. I identify them here as general tendencies, because people seem to be drawn more to one or the other. I call them the outer path and the inner path.
If one is inclined to choose the outer path, concerns about adaptation and local resilience move into the foreground, as exemplified by the Transition Network and Permaculture Movement. To those on the outer path, community-building and local sustainability initiatives will have great appeal. Organized party politics seems to be less attractive to people at this stage, however. Perhaps politics is seen as part of the problem, or perhaps it's just seen as a waste of effort when the real action will take place at the local level.
If one is disinclined to choose the outer path either because of temperament or circumstance, the inner path offers its own set of attractions.
Choosing the inner path involves re-framing the whole thing in terms of consciousness, self-awareness and/or some form of transcendent perception. For someone on this path it is seen as an attempt to manifest Gandhi's message, "Become the change you wish to see in the world," on the most profoundly personal level. This message is similarly expressed in the ancient Hermetic saying, "As above, so below." Or in plain language, "In order to heal the world, first begin by healing yourself."
However, the inner path does not imply a "retreat into religion". Most of the people I've met who have chosen an inner path have as little use for traditional religion as their counterparts on the outer path have for traditional politics. Organized religion is usually seen as part of the predicament rather than a valid response to it. Those who have arrived at this point have no interest in hiding from or easing the painful truth, rather they wish to create a coherent personal context for it. Personal spirituality of one sort or another often works for this, but organized religion rarely does.
It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response to the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. There are few other doorways out of this depth of despair. If one remains stuck here for an extended period of time, life can begin to seem awfully bleak, and violence against either the world or oneself may begin to seem like a reasonable option. Keep a watchful eye on your own progress, and if you encounter someone else who may be in this state, please offer them a supportive ear.
From my observations, each successive stage contains roughly a tenth of the number people as the one before it. So while perhaps 90% of humanity is in Stage 1, less than one person in ten thousand will be at Stage 5 (and none of them are likely to be politicians). The number of those who have chosen the inner path in Stage 5 also seems to be an order of magnitude smaller than the number who are on the outer path.
I happen to have chosen an inner path as my response to a Stage 5 awareness. It works well for me, but navigating this imminent (transition, shift, metamorphosis - call it what you will), will require all of us - no matter what our chosen paths - to cooperate on making wise decisions in difficult times.
Best wishes for a long, exciting, and fulfilling journey." ~Bodhi Paul Chefurka
As one can see here, very few people have made it to Stage 5, and even fewer have made it to an inner path as a response to that knowledge. I have actually been involved in both the inner and outer path (as he points out how many are involved in some mix of the two), although more effort has been expended on the inner path. Once one begins working on the inner path, he or she will begin to see why the outer paths work today but will falter in the future. At this point, he or she will begin to realize that the outer path is mostly bargaining to maintain civilization and that only if our species collectively embraced the inner path could we begin to reduce overshoot, thereby beginning mitigating the situation we find ourselves enmeshed within. As I've recently pointed out in several different articles, William E. Rees points to why we are cognitively challenged to be able to accomplish such a feat, leading one to realize that it's just not going to happen.
Considering that 7 of the 9 planetary boundaries have already been passed with ocean acidification being the latest one passed, the prognosis doesn't look good. As this article shows, the boundary was actually passed about 5 years ago. I don't often spend much time discussing ocean acidification and marine life here, but in this case, it is quite important to note that ocean acidification is just one predicament causing death in the oceans. Hypoxia is another and toxic algal blooms is yet a third predicament.
Pollution loading is one more threat to marine life and climate change-induced cryosphere loss is also having a serious impact. The overall decline of whales (despite some species rebounding) globally has been at least partially responsible for reduced phytoplankton growth (along with climate change) and, in the Antarctic, decline of krill biomass. In other words, the base of the marine food chain is being slowly wiped out by a number of factors, all pointing back to our behaviors causing ecological overshoot. Efforts to "solve" these predicaments have only made them worse, such as the development of offshore wind turbines wiping out phytoplankton as this quote demonstrates:
"The cooling systems for these windmills pump 8.1 million gallons of seawater through every day, heating it to 86 to 90 degrees and killing 100 percent of the plankton,” says Leeman, citing projections for Ørsted's 924-megawatt Sunrise Wind project off New York. “We’re seeing a 65 percent decline in the phytoplankton population in the Gulf of Maine over the last two decades, and we’re talking about putting wind farms that kill plankton in areas where we have no baseline for primary production.”
As Leeman notes, phytoplankton is the foundation of the marine food chain. It also provides upwards of 50 percent of the earth’s oxygen. Climate change, wind farms, agricultural run-off, microplastic, and a host of other threats are affecting plankton and it’s surprising that the decline of this vital component of the earth’s ecosystems is not front-page news.
“I’ve been shouting this from the rooftops for years now,” says Kieran Kelly, owner of the ocean plastics recovery company Ocean Integrity. “I can’t get anyone to listen. Globally, we’ve lost over 50 percent of the phytoplankton biomass since the 1950s, and we’re continuing to lose it about 1 to 2 percent a year. Never mind nuclear war. This is what’s going to kill us."
As Leeman notes, phytoplankton is the foundation of the marine food chain. It also provides upwards of 50 percent of the earth’s oxygen. Climate change, wind farms, agricultural run-off, microplastic, and a host of other threats are affecting plankton and it’s surprising that the decline of this vital component of the earth’s ecosystems is not front-page news.
“I’ve been shouting this from the rooftops for years now,” says Kieran Kelly, owner of the ocean plastics recovery company Ocean Integrity. “I can’t get anyone to listen. Globally, we’ve lost over 50 percent of the phytoplankton biomass since the 1950s, and we’re continuing to lose it about 1 to 2 percent a year. Never mind nuclear war. This is what’s going to kill us."
If you think that is bad, here's yet another consequence of the microplastics predicament highlighted in my article regarding how bad pollution loading is several paragraphs above, from the same article that the quote above is from:
"Microplastics are yet another aspect of the assault on what Mollo calls the irreplaceable foundation in the food chain, starting from photosynthesis all the way to our plates.
“Today, we can observe plastic microfilaments among the copepods or diatoms that are even present inside the plankton itself,” he says. “Most are identified as micro-fibers from synthetic textiles, notably "fleeces" created by the plastic recycling industry. These fibers enter the ocean by the billions each time these types of garments are washed.”
Zooplankton has been observed grazing on microplastic, and diatoms often attach to minute fibers and these work their way up the food chain. “We can now find these particles in salt from the ocean and in our excrements,” says Mollo. “There are traces of the chemical compounds that are contained in plastics which then pass into animals, like nano-residues from heavy metals or phthalates used to soften plastics. They are serious endocrine disruptors that can affect reproductive capacity, including also in humans."
“Today, we can observe plastic microfilaments among the copepods or diatoms that are even present inside the plankton itself,” he says. “Most are identified as micro-fibers from synthetic textiles, notably "fleeces" created by the plastic recycling industry. These fibers enter the ocean by the billions each time these types of garments are washed.”
Zooplankton has been observed grazing on microplastic, and diatoms often attach to minute fibers and these work their way up the food chain. “We can now find these particles in salt from the ocean and in our excrements,” says Mollo. “There are traces of the chemical compounds that are contained in plastics which then pass into animals, like nano-residues from heavy metals or phthalates used to soften plastics. They are serious endocrine disruptors that can affect reproductive capacity, including also in humans."
Since phytoplankton account for approximately half of all photosynthetic activity, they are an important part of the carbon sink of the planet. Just like trees and plants and permafrost and the Arctic Boreal zone, this carbon sink is rapidly disappearing also. Carbon sinks are becoming carbon sources as climate tipping points are being passed.
I've spent so much time over the past 5 years highlighting these different predicaments and how none of them are actually "solvable" because they are not problems, and how practically every attempt at mitigating (such as the plastics recycling industry mentioned above) winds up making the existing predicaments we already face worse rather than better.
It requires someone looking at these predicaments for years and looking at a wide variety of them, not just one or two or three, to comprehend precisely what we're up against and why not only are they not solvable, but every attempt we make to mitigate them only worsens the situation or, at best, makes no real difference collectively and/or globally. One must remember that everything (and everyone) is connected; we only have this one biosphere to exist within. What we do doesn't stay in the area or country we live in - it ripples across borders and all other anthropocentric boundaries. This means that only if everyone practices the same living arrangements would it have much, if any, impact on the real world.
One must keep in mind that at this point in time, living a sustainable lifestyle is a fantasy - it simply isn't possible for all of us (with 8.25 billion of us) on this planet. So, civilization will continue until it cannot, at which time the carrying capacity will drop substantially, forcing a mass die-off. Of course, by that time, mass dying will have already been a feature, as can be seen today will all the various wars and conflicts and extreme weather events and disease going on globally.
A new study out indicates that the outcome of a "sustainable" diet showed an inadequate intake of a considerable number of micronutrients, which, over time would cause serious issues without supplementing those nutrients. I did get a pretty good chuckle, considering that the food that they were eating came from an unsustainable practice, yet they call the diet "sustainable."
What many don't (or won't) admit (possibly even to themselves) is that it's not just one, or two, or three, or four behaviors of ours that we would have to change with how we live. We cannot simply change how we plant crops or how we raise farm animals or how we access energy or how we smelt metals or what kind of food we eat or what kind of clothing we wear. Quite literally, everything about the way we live would have to change and this would be required of everyone living within civilization today. It is rather obvious that this just isn't going to happen until it is forced upon us by energy and resource decline. As much as I support efforts to reduce energetical and resource throughput and attempts to make agriculture better, none of the ideas currently on offer can make the significant changes needed to prevent the disasters coming down the pike, or even significantly change the outcome of these predicaments.
I constantly see people making all kinds of statements regarding "this being the solution" or "that being the solution" and I can assure you that all of it put together doesn't equal a full load of anything more than horseshit. Folks making these claims are busy trying to sell you something - many times it is a book or information of some sort. Predicaments don't have solutions, they have outcomes. I cannot fathom how something that is so easy for me to see can be so difficult for others to admit, and yet at the same time, it proves beyond any shadow of a doubt the absolute power of denial of reality.
Despite all this, here's yet another idea - to "restore" an estuary - without reducing overshoot. Unfortunately, reductionism doesn't work holistically, so this idea is destined to fall into the dustbin of history just like all other reductionist ideas that do not address the master predicament of overshoot or our behavior causing it. Somebody might want to ask the author how long it will be before the Guana River is no longer a river, but part of the ocean. I suppose it is similar to scientists who are busy attempting to "restore" other systems or "save" species without taking overshoot into consideration. It does appear that most folks (including scientists) don't realize just how addicted to technology we really are (also see Part Two).
The constant stream of industrial-grade hopium and fantasies, myths, and fairy tales continues with other ridiculous ideas such as hemp and bamboo, which Steve Bull explains in a detailed article showing how both are simply adding to and not replacing hydrocarbons or plastics. He explains how this is the exact same scenario of the so-called "renewables" (non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting devices). The devices don't replace fossil fuels because they are derived from fossil fuels and they don't have the same physical properties and abilities as fossil fuels. If one looks at the history of so-called energy transitions, he or she will see that there has never been an energy transition. We're still using wood and charcoal. We're still using coal. We're still using oil. We're still using gas. We're still using all other forms of energy. So all these forms of energy have not replaced previous popular forms of energy, they have simply been added to the mix of energy being utilized.
One more bit of hopium that I have brought up before but haven't discussed in quite some time due to the fact that the whole idea has been a joke (the devices and infrastructure required for carbon capture require more emissions than they sequester). Geoffrey Deihl explains the situation in this illuminating article.
OK, it is time to wrap this up for today. I intend to continue this same topic in my next article, but for now I encourage you to take some time to enjoy today's sets of pictures from Fairy Stone State Park and Smith Mountain Lake State Park!
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