The Mistake of Basing Future Life on Today's Realities

 

The summit of Whiteface Veterans Memorial Highway, New York

As I continue writing about the self-induced predicaments our species face, one topic that constantly comes back to mind over and over again is the simple fact that the way most all of us live today is entirely unsustainable. The system that we employ, known to most of us as civilization, has been unsustainable from the very beginning. This is due to the technology of agriculture. Going back to my article about why civilization is unsustainable is advised for anyone not already well-versed about it. 

Because civilization is unsustainable, every one which has ever developed has also collapsed, some multiple times. Others collapsed and the members of those civilizations actually learned from their mistakes and decided not to embark on that journey again. The members of those societies scattered and then remained dispersed in smaller tribes rather than reorganizing back into cities. One such society was Cahokia, and I've written about it before (along with many others).

Because these Indigenous tribes had learned their lesson, they saw the ways of the Europeans who invaded North America as flawed and used the word wetiko to describe the mindset of colonialization. The tribes understood civilization as unsustainable but were unable to convince the Europeans (or the broad majority of them) of the consequences of living that way. 

Overshoot and collapse is inevitable in every unsustainable system. All of the systems which developed around civilization did so for a very good reason - to keep the system humming along and to minimize problems which kept creeping into the system. Think of all our modern systems of infrastructure, built to keep our potable water safe, prevent disease by removing sewage, removing garbage to keep streets and neighborhoods safe, and on and on.

As time moved forward, more and more complexity developed as more infrastructural systems were built and maintained. New societal and cultural systems were also needed to keep pace with the growing cities, as well as bureaucratic systems designed to keep order and handle issues. All of these systems followed failed systems through trial and tribulation, and the winners became a model for other cities, states, and nations. 

One of the most notorious books in recent times, The Dawn of Everything, has been used to point to civilization not being deterministic, but this was accomplished through a failure of logic as pointed out by Tom Murphy, who discovered other critiques of the book as well. I have posted this information before in this space, although it has been quite a while back. I've seen quite a few serious reviews of the book, and while they brought forth some of the positive aspects of the book, most of the reviews were overwhelmingly negative pointing out many of the same faults as Murphy did. Needless to say, when someone uses narratives from that book, I'm not inclined to buy too much into them.

Just as importantly as how the systems and infrastructure which surround us are all unsustainable, these systems will disappear over the next several decades as a result. This is where I constantly see what I think is much denial of reality into what life will be like as time moves forward. Most people make the assumption that life will go on mostly the same as today, not taking into consideration that civilization as we know it today will have already collapsed by 2100. 

For instance, take a look at the assumptions made in this video; do they not appear extremely naïve? For a PBS presentation to be so far out of what I consider to be realistic (what kind of economy will actually exist in 2100?!!) signals to me that society in general is likewise completely unaware that the landscape by that time will look completely different than it does today. A member in the group I run said this:

"The cost of climate change will of course be $0 - because there won't be any dollars left and nothing to spend them on..."

My point in writing this particular article is to bring light to the fact that conditions and life will be very different from today. A wise person will resist the temptation to spend a great deal of money and/or time attempting to continue life as it is today, because the systems that support such a life are all shapeshifting, meaning that investing in infrastructure that today fits in well with the landscape might be completely useless a decade or two from now. Likewise, attempting to utilize systems that today may serve us well are far more likely to fail in the coming years. 

I routinely see many people advocating for things which today constitute good advice; things such as regenerative agriculture, permaculture, building soil, and building sustainability and resilience. However, as many farmers can attest already, this may also be a recipe for failure. Ask anyone who invested all their money into a property they believed they would retire on or live out the rest of their years on and ended up losing said property as a result of bankruptcy or medical disaster or had some other disaster strike. IF you are passionate and determined to succeed and young and healthy, then maybe it's a good idea. Just make sure you have a backup plan in case things don't turn out like you expected. Here's one story and an associated story and video about a farmer forced to shut down his farm due to PFAS pollution.

With wildfires releasing all kinds of toxins into the atmosphere, water, and soil, and flooding releasing toxins into the soil and bodies of water all over the world, combined with microplastic toxins being deposited everywhere, the food we eat is slowly poisoning not only all of us, but every other species on the planet as well. It's important for everyone to understand and realize the difference between a solvable problem and a predicament which only has an outcome. Once one comprehends this key difference, he or she can contemplate the cycle of life that we are all a part of and that death is a part of life, as there can be no life without it.

Emphasizing these changes that collapse will bring about is necessary in my opinion to help people understand that talking about the future as if it will resemble today's world is not just disingenuous but outright lying. People will only pay attention if they understand what it means to them; they need to comprehend that they will be affected in a very negative manner and that these predicaments apply to everyone. I see no need to tell folks that they are going extinct unless they clearly don't understand what the outcome of a mass extinction is. When I see that one hasn't connected the dots of the mass extinction we're in to our own species, then I may think it necessary to let them know. Another recent article by Tom Murphy points out just how unlikely it is that we escape this predicament.

Recently in my articles, I have pointed out how ecological collapse is occurring all around us. One new article highlights a study about insect loss and shows a 72.4% over a 20 year period between 2004 and 2024 in relatively undisturbed landscapes. There is a continuous stream of articles showing this trajectory, indicating that ecological collapse is ongoing and gaining speed. I've pointed out how pollution loading is devastating and gaining speed as well. I see it as very important to demonstrate that talk of mitigating or "solving" any of the symptoms of overshoot is just that, talk. In fact, a new article highlights new research into the predicaments we face, quote:

"A lot of people confuse pessimism with nihilism, apathy and despair," Scranton said. "But pessimism is actually about recognizing our limits, letting go of unrealistic goals, finding solidarity in the fact of human suffering and doing what you can now, not in some utopian future.

Our bias toward optimism, he cautions, may be "a characteristic of great evolutionary advantage in the long term, but under conditions of global ecological catastrophe has proven highly maladaptive."

Pessimism, he concludes, is "an accurate, appropriate, and above all ethical response to the current situation—perhaps the only ethical response available."

My recommendation is to not necessarily set one's sights on ideas which are popular today, but look towards the future to see if those plans will actually work in the conditions of tomorrow - before deciding on investing a great deal of time, money, and/or energy in a given idea. For instance, building community resilience is a good idea, but building a new solar power system leaves quite a bit to be desired. The likelihood one will be able to find parts for a solar system 5, 10, or 15 years down the road is questionable and the system may not even last that long anyway.

Recently I have been involved in a discussion on Substack with Suzanne Taylor and so I invited her into one of the groups I run so she can see what types of discussions take place there and I even dedicated a special thread to this particular conversation. The comments on the thread were pretty much just what I expected, given the topic and my knowledge on the background of said topic. Some of them were particularly insightful, such as this one, quote:

"Diagnosis: It is terminal for about 95% - 100% of humanity.
Prognosis: We are in that 95%
Therapy: Comfort and hospice level care. Live well as much as possible.

My being comfortable does not get any better by trying to convince others of something that they are studiously trying to avoid seeing."

I'm certainly not against discussing the predicaments we face, however, I also realize that a large number of people are just not interested in hearing about it. Those of us who are interested are already discussing it and have been for a number of years and even decades. It's true that new people are constantly joining in these discussions as more people become aware of at least one or more of the symptom predicaments of overshoot. Still, a large number of people believe that these predicaments are a "hoax" or caused by HAARP or chemtrails or other equally moronic beliefs not rooted in science. No amount of scientific evidence will convince them of anything because their belief isn't based on evidence; it's based on a deep-seated need to believe.

For evidence of this setup, one only needs to watch the first few minutes of this TED talk by Al Gore. Once you've seen that, check out these three links with the actual evidence proving his claims false here and here and here. I've pointed out ignorance, hubris, and stupidity in the past and I'm just not all that interested in attempting to reason with those who cannot be reasoned with. I've been trying for the last 15 years to reason with folks, and every once in a while I actually gain some ground, but most frequently the facts I disperse are met with lots of opinions and ignorance spewed about by those who lack the independent critical thinking required to truly comprehend where we are and what is going to happen. Realizing (once I have stepped on one of these land mines) what I have done, I quickly see that I wasted my time and accomplished very little or nothing. 

One comment on Suzanne's thread from Jan Steinman I really like (and emulates closely to what I have chosen as my goals) about what can be done now, quote:

"I don’t think there is anything that can be done on a scale big enough to make a difference.

We fire apes are doing what species do — maximizing our rate of power dissipation.

Yea, we have these big brains (which also dissipate a lot of power!), but our intelligence isn’t really influencing what Lotka and Odum argued was the Fourth Law of Thermodynamics.

Those of us who understand what is going on are outliers. Those of us outliers who are taking personal actions to ride out the coming crash are outliers even among the outliers!

So “now what?”

Grow food. As much as you reasonably can. If you cannot, get your food from local people who grow it, and support them by helping out, if you possibly can.

Join with others of like mind. It doesn’t need to be perfect, but it needs to be. The days of the “rugged individualist” are over, fueled by what Catton called “take over” or “draw down”.

Subvert the dominant paradigm. It almost doesn’t matter which dominant paradigm! Divest from passive investment. Reduce your income. Drive much less. Downsize your life. Consider these as practice for post-crash living!"

This is what the wisdom of experience and maturity has taught many - to opt out of the system to the extent possible and reduce and downsize. What most of us have today within modernity will become unmanageable over time (due to energy and resource decline and collapse) and one will find that what can be maintained today will become the next sacrifice zone tomorrow. 

I asked Suzanne in the group these two questions, which unfortunately were never answered:

"What exactly are you going to tell people that hasn't already been said a million times before by countless others? Also, even more to the point, what is it that you suggest they do above and beyond living in the now?"

Given the facts surrounding denial of reality, I don't see how telling more people about overshoot or any of the symptom predicaments it produces will change the outcome. A new article by Will Richardson points out how and why we are addicted to denial. Comprehending this and the cultural programming preventing society from embarking on a better trajectory led me into more research as to our lack of agency with regard to voluntarily reducing overshoot. 

Suzanne claimed in the group that I am not understanding her, but I think I understand her only too well. She has a noble goal, as do most all of us in the overshoot community. But having a noble goal and actually producing a different outcome are two different things. I am certainly willing to answer questions. However, I think I am already doing this on multiple platforms (including Substack) and see no need to add more. Show me scientific evidence of an actual ability to change the outcome and I might change my mind. 

I have seen or heard practically every idea out there, but none of them have changed the trajectory. What will change the trajectory is the inevitable collapse that always follows overshoot, and this is a hyperobject over which we have no control. In fact, this is truly one of our biggest psychological issues beyond denial of reality and optimism bias; the idea that we can control nature or climate change or overshoot or, well, so many different things that in reality we have no control over whatsoever. This idea of control is an illusion, not actual reality. Once industrial civilization collapses, all the illusions of today will disappear. Everything will revert back to the 1800's before electricity became widely available. 

Society will "stair step" down to that point, simplifying as time moves forward. Simplifying is the removal of complexity due to a lack of energy and/or resources that are required to power and maintain such complexity, and each step is like a row of dominoes falling down - one domino takes the next one until all connected dominoes have fallen. Then the process repeats itself with the next tipping point.

Could the timeline be incorrect? Sure it could. However, the level of complexity that our species has built up to the pinnacle of today is now unraveling in grand fashion on multiple levels with ecological collapse superseding financial collapse with both baked in at this point. 

So, what can we do now? You name it! If your heart calls you to do it, then go for it! Live Now! Attachment to outcome is what I would like to see people abandon. When I plant trees, I don't do it for ulterior motives; I do it for the sheer pleasure of doing it. I have seen many different people absolutely **crushed** with grief because what they worked so diligently to accomplish wasn't accomplished. I, too, was crushed with grief when it finally sunk in what a predicament actually is and that there was no way out. 

I know that this article has been long and filled with many links; congratulations if you made it this far! Double congrats if you actually opened said links! This all has been an effort to tackle a subject that has been near and dear to my heart for many years now. If it helps even just one person reach acceptance, then I am happy for my work to be of service. My next article will delve into more of our psychology and some of the illusions we suffer from.

Now for just a little joy; here are today's collection of pictures: Yatesville Lake State Park along with Paintsville Lake State Park and Flag Rock Recreation Area!