Why Is Overshoot a Predicament and Not a Problem?

 

Port Kent Beach, New York

Recently, I have dealt with several trolls who have made false allegations that ecological overshoot is not a predicament with an outcome, but a solvable problem. One person argued that the outcome itself is a solution. This is a fantastic display of denial of reality. Another person claimed that "we will solve it by using food forests." Once again, denial of reality and optimism bias appear to rule those two people's minds. 

Unfortunately, the truth of the matter is that neither one of them are correct. The first one claims that Chris Martenson is the source of the simple fact that the issue of overshoot (the root predicament of many of the symptoms which are incidentally also predicaments) is a predicament with an outcome and not a problem with a solution (or answer). In reality, many scientists and others have clearly stated that we suffer from a predicament, not a problem. Most notably, William R. Catton, Jr. framed the situation as a predicament way back in 1980, quote:

"In a future that is as unavoidable as it will be unwelcome, survival and sanity may depend upon our ability to cherish rather than to disparage the concept of human dignity. My purpose in writing this book has been to enhance that ability by providing a clear understanding of the ecological context of human life. 

It is axiomatic that we are in no way protected from the consequences of our actions by remaining confused about the ecological meaning of our humanness, ignorant of ecological processes, and unmindful of the ecological aspects of history. I have tried to show the real nature of humanity's predicament not because understanding its nature will enable us to escape it, but because if we do not understand it we shall continue to act and react in ways that make it worse. 

End-of-chapter notes are provided to document or clarify points about which readers may feel reasonable skepticism. A list of selected references is also provided at the end of each chapter to satisfy appetites for further knowledge which I trust the chapter content may arouse."

However, many others have also noted this as a predicament, including William E. Rees, Art Berman, Nate Hagens, Becker Sidney Smith, Richard Adrian Reese, and Guy R. McPherson. Coming to my page, profile, and/or blog and arguing against something I know to be true isn't likely to accomplish anything other than me pointing to the facts, and letting one know that he or she is entitled to their opinion but that their opinion does not change any of the facts already established. Continuing arguing will only get you blocked, as I simply don't have time to argue about things that are already settled. It can be difficult to assess things when one is surrounded by cultural myths, hype, and narratives, which is why I like to drill down into the factual material to discover the truth about these things and share my findings with everyone. 

The reason I sat down to write this article is to explain that I'm not much into semantics. It is possible and even likely that language limits understanding and comprehension of many different topics, and especially regarding the sheer complexity of what we face as a species, it is therefore highly likely that any particular individual will have differing comprehension of these topics. But while there may be different layers of comprehension of these topics, it does not change the fact that outcomes are NOT solutions because they don't return conditions to the beginning conditions that existed before the predicament became recognized as such. Likewise, a predicament cannot be "solved" as the previous sentence points out. No further explanation is required because physics and nature don't negotiate. 

If a person wants to attempt to bargain with these predicaments, nobody can stop him or her. Jump off a cliff and see if gravity will negotiate with you. You will come to the same "splat" at the bottom of the fall no differently than if you jump off without attempting to bargain. The exact same scenario will occur with bargaining with any of these predicaments - the outcome will be the same whether you attempt such bargaining or not. If anything, attempting to bargain with a predicament (rather than accepting it for what it is and working towards mitigation if such is possible) can only worsen the existing predicament, as Catton pointed out in his statement above.

As usual, my attempt at pointing these issues out is to help those who may not have the same mindset that I do. I'm not expecting anyone to develop the same mindset that I have, even if I think it will be helpful. However, my intention is to potentially benefit others by sharing these stories - perhaps a reader will have come across one of these same situations himself or herself and reading these passages may add dimension to their knowledge of overshoot and the phenomena surrounding it.

My passion here is simply to help others understand overshoot better. I know that I once found it extremely confusing because of the cultural programming and indoctrination that all of us have gone through in our earlier developmental stages. We're all taught the same when it comes to money, growth, and technology - basically the myth of human progress. Some folks like me think that human progress is an illusion. John Gray shows us how we are more like slaves to technology than masters of it, quote:

"Those who ignore the destructive potential of future technologies can do so only because they ignore history. Pogroms are as old as Christendom; but without railways, the telegraph and poison gas there could have been no Holocaust. There have always been tyrannies; but without modern means of transport and communication, Stalin and Mao could not have built their gulags. Humanity’s worst crimes were made possible only by modern technology.

There is a deeper reason why “humanity” will never control technology. Technology is not something that humankind can control. It as an event that has befallen the world.

Once a technology enters human life — whether it be fire, the wheel, the automobile, radio, television, or the internet — it changes it in ways we can never fully understand."

Once again, there is that illusion of control that I bring up so frequently. Being technology addicts, most of us cannot see that we can abandon the system of technology use (civilization) or it will kill us. This was demonstrated to us by the Limits to Growth study over 50 years ago. Until an addict accepts his or her addiction, how likely is it that he or she will admit that the addiction will kill him or her (if it isn't brought under control)? Probably about as likely as we (our species collectively) will admit that our addiction to technology use will kill us. Acceptance is required, in other words, to be able to address it. My next article will deal with this more fully and bring a bit of humility to the mix.

Another fascinating part of the myth of human progress is in progress itself. What is a progress trap? Ronald Wright explains in this revealing video. It is interesting to go back in time and see how people thought about overshoot (15 years ago in this case) at that time. There was quite a bit of hopium back then (or is it hope porn?). Sometimes it seems like hopium still abounds even now, although most folks do appear to be less hopeful now (thankfully). Also, one never knows if the trolls I mentioned at the top of this article are real people or AI bots, so there's that too.

Once again, realizing that overshoot is a predicament with an outcome took quite a long time for me to acquire. I was just finishing this article when I came across a new article from Dave Pollard which fits right in with the same sentiment I am trying to explain. It was a huge letdown for me when I discovered the truth about the difference between a predicament and a problem, and I remained in denial for a long time afterwards, going back and forth through different stages of grief in attempts to continue my belief that we could somehow solve all of this. Eventually, after a lot of reading, I finally accepted the new facts I had come upon and discarded my old beliefs. I agree with Dave wholeheartedly here, quote:

"I’ve begrudgingly learned two hard-won lessons in humility so far in life: First, my youthful confidence in ‘fixing’ and ‘saving’ the world gave way to an understanding of how complex systems actually work: nature adapts through deep, redundant, interconnected processes that humans cannot control, copy, engineer, or outlast. Human attempts at efficiency, mastery, and rational design repeatedly fail against nature’s resilience and its unpredictable, unfathomable complexity. And human-built systems are inherently fragile, inflexible, require far more maintenance than we are capable of investing in them, and quickly and inevitably collapse over time, especially as they get large and unwieldy.

And second, I lost my faith in human agency to bring about positive change. Our behaviour I see now is not guided by reason or belief but is fully conditioned by biology, culture, and circumstance; beliefs merely justify actions after the fact. As a result, our personal ‘choices’ and intentions have no impact on our behaviour, and have never significantly affected anything. I no longer believe the world can be improved through ‘conscious’ effort or will, nor that we have any control whatsoever over our actions.

These are lessons of disillusionment that slowly ‘dawned’ on me. So now, in the same way that I’ve come to appreciate that the sun’s apparent revolving around the earth is an illusion, so too have I come to appreciate that human agency, free will, and capacity to control, sustain, and ‘improve upon’ vastly complex systems, both natural and man-made, are likewise illusory."


Honestly, not much more needs to be said here in my mind. Just like what he says later in the short article, he has become happier just like I have at the reality that since there is no solution, finding one is neither required, necessary, or possible. Those who become obsessed with finding a solution will only drive themselves insane because in reality, they are just bargaining.

There are more than enough things to drive one crazy as it is - why not take some time out of your schedule to enjoy some of the beauty that nature has to offer? Here is some inspiration from Fernleigh Estate Stone Bridge and Council Rock Park, both in Cooperstown, New York!